SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs in Afternoon Session, Supported by Tight Supply-Demand Balance and Improved Macro Sentiment [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the midday of September 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2510 showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. By the midday close, the most-traded contract was temporarily quoted at 271,960 yuan/mt, up 1,710 yuan, or about 0.63%, from the previous trading day, with the intraday trading range between 269,880 yuan/mt and 272,110 yuan/mt. Today, SHFE tin futures fluctuated upward after opening, and the futures showed a trend of recovery and rebound. In external markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price closed up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt, an increase of $250 from the previous trading day. The low inventory pattern supported tin prices. During the Asian session, LME tin prices consolidated gains above the $34,000 mark, with technicals showing a fluctuating upward trend.

Macro environment, the warming expectations of loose market liquidity were a key factor driving the rebound in tin prices. Although several US Fed officials recently sent hawkish signals, the market still expects an interest rate cut in October, and the US dollar index fell under pressure amid policy uncertainty, providing an opportunity for a catch-up rise in US dollar-denominated tin prices. In the domestic market, the central bank maintained reasonably ample liquidity through open market operations, strongly supporting economic recovery and boosting sentiment in the base metal market. The supply and demand fundamentals showed a tight balance, and the tightening pattern on the supply side had not eased: Myanmar ore supply remained tight, Indonesia resumed exports but the increase was insufficient, and domestic major smelters were constrained by raw material shortages and equipment maintenance, leading to lower operating rates. Refined tin production in September is expected to decline MoM. Overall, the current warming macro sentiment and tight supply situation jointly support tin prices, with low inventory and raw material shortages providing strong support for prices, but weak demand still limits upside room. In the afternoon, SHFE tin is expected to continue its fluctuating trend at highs, with focus on the effectiveness of resistance at the $34,500 mark for LME tin and the sustainability of pre-holiday stockpiling demand in the domestic market.